• Skip to main content
  • FX Product information
  • About Nordea Corporate
  • Research
  • Log in
Terms of use
Disclaimer
Cookies
Accessibility
Privacy Policy
MiFID II and SI Quotes
Corporate Netbank
© 2025 Nordea
Oct 10, 2018, 13:07

Russia 2024: similar targets, new deadlines

Official forecasts paint bright growth outlook (+17% to GDP in the next 6 years). Growth stimulating measures suggested by the government look promissing. But is the Russian government able to overcome global cycles?

The Russian government is getting closer to the tasks set by the president in the May decrees for the next presidential term. Last week the ministry of economic development published its economic forecast till 2024 and the government approved the guidelines for its work till 2024. In parallel, the government and parliament are working on the budget for 2019-21. This document mix is setting the stage for macroeconomic policy in the coming years and puts forward the measures meant to make Russia the fifth largest economy in the world in PPP terms by 2024.

The official macroeconomic forecast corresponding to this ambitious target pencils in Russian GDP growth at more than 3% in 2021-24. This growth trajectory substantially deviates from the IMF’s current forecast where the Russian potential growth rate drops below 1.5% starting from 2022. Ironically the Russian breakthrough to a higher growth trajectory is planned for 2021 – exactly the moment when the global slowdown risks getting more pronounced. The signs of the global cycle gradually maturing are increasingly vivid: leading indicators point to the south while central banks shift to a tightening mode. It’s really optimistic to expect that the Russian economy may stay immune to slower global momentum and resultant lower commodities prices. Indeed, the Russian budget is based on an oil price of USD 41.8/bbl in 2018, which limits the downside risks here. But a lower oil price means more pressure on the RUB, a higher key rate and hence more obstacles to high growth.

These risks are said to be taken into account in the conservative scenario showing a slightly lower but still very ambitious growth trajectory. These higher growth scenarios are not completely unrealistic. However, an outstanding reform effort is needed for them to materialise at a time of lower global growth momentum and a tighter sanction grip.

Chart 1. MinEco forecasts vs IMF forecasts for Russia

A large number of sensible measures are proposed in the guidelines for government activity till 2024. Below we summarise those that are most relevant for the objective to increasing growth. The 100-page-long document contains many more details on particular measures:

Whether these reforms will take the Russian economy to a higher growth trajectory depends on a timely implementation of the announced measures while external conditions are still more or less favourable.

The government is hoping not only to accelerate growth but also to change the growth model from a consumption-based to an investment-based one. This is one of the unattainable goals present in government plans in the latest two decades.The chart below shows that beyond 2020 growth will accelerate mainly thanks to a higher contribution from investment, which will to a great extent be publicly financed. Previously growth was mainly driven by consumption. The government also counts on a positive contribution from net exports to growth beyond 2020. Combining high investment growth (which is very import-intensive) and positive net exports contribution to growth is another challenging task. In the modern history of Russia, that has never happened yet. Every year when investment activity was strong, imports were growing faster than exports, making the net exports contribution to growth negative.

Chart 2. From consumption-driven to investment-driven model

The previous presidential term in Russia also started with setting ambitious goals for the coming six years. Some of them have been achieved; notably Russia has considerably improved its standing in the doing business ranking (shifting from 111th rank in 2012 to 35th in 2017) and salaries within healthcare and education, as promised, have increased much faster than in the economy overall. However, the oil price crash and the imposition of sanctions in 2014 limited Russian GDP growth to only 3% over the previous presidential term in 2012-18. The target for the current presidential term is an ambitious 17%. The chart below shows to what extent different economic sectors are expected to contribute to this 17% growth rate and the contribution they made to overall GDP growth in 2012-18. The government counts a lot on massive construction efforts and a boost to manufacturing. In 2012-18 both made a negative or zero contribution to GDP growth.

Chart 3. Contribution by different sectors to GDP growth (2018-24 government forecast vs 2012-18 actual result), percantage points

Digging deeper into manufacturing, wood processing, auto production and chemistry are expected to grow the most. Increases in auto output are to a large extent driven by public procurement.

Chart 4. Main drivers of manufacturing growth in 2018-24, %

In summary, the economic agenda is really ambitious and will have to be pushed forward in a quite challenging external environment. The growth trajectory of the coming six years largely depends on the decisiveness of reform efforts in 2019-20 before global growth slows down noticeably.

Read article disclaimer

NEXT ARTICLE

Chief Economist's Corner: A strong Denmark takes over the EU presidency this summer

More from the International edition

Nordic Economies
Swedish June inflation preview: back to 3%
Core inflation bounced to 3% in June, up from 2.5% in May and a tad higher than the Riksbank’s view, according to our forecast. Food prices rose.
Torbjörn Isaksson
1 Jul
Torbjörn Isaksson
Major Economies
ECB Watch: On hold for now
The ECB monetary policy account suggests that the bar for further policy moves has risen and the central bank is on hold for now. Our baseline does not include any further rate moves, though risks remain tilted towards a further rate cut.
Jan von Gerich
12:50
Jan von Gerich
2 Jul, 11:12

Chief Economist's Corner: A strong Denmark takes over the EU presidency this summer

Marketing communication

Chief Economist's Corner

Article by Helge J. Pedersen

Denmark takes over the EU presidency at a critical time of worldwide turmoil. While the challenges ahead are substantial, Denmark is well-positioned to lead a successful six-month term.

After a cool and windy June, the weather has now changed in the first days of July. The Danish Meteorological Institute forecasts bright sunshine and temperatures that may creep above 30 degrees. While Danish summer weather is famously unpredictable, the quality of life for Danes remains consistently high. The Economist has just named Copenhagen the world’s best city to live in, and according to the Numbeo database, Denmark holds an impressive third place globally in quality of life.

But it’s not only in terms of quality of life and lifestyle that we stand out. The Danish economy is exceptionally strong. Growth has been solid since the pandemic, employment reaches new records month after month, inflation is under control and the current account and public finances are among the strongest in the world. Few countries can boast of their government regularly announcing extra financial flexibility.

Building on this strong position, Denmark began its six-month EU presidency on 1 July – during a period of global political tensions, a new world order and major green and digital transitions. The presidency takes place under the slogan “A strong Europe in a changing world,” and the main Danish priorities fall under the headings: a more secure Europe and a more competitive and green Europe.

The Danish presidency is coordinated with Poland and Cyprus as part of the so-called trio programme, which ensures continuity in the EU’s overall political direction at a time when Europe faces massive challenges – particularly in the security area. Russia's war of aggression in Ukraine continues, while the situation in the Middle East remains volatile. This has highlighted the need for strengthened European defence cooperation.

After decades of underprioritising defence spending, many member states now need to rebuild their military capabilities substantially. While the Stability and Growth Pact’s exception clause offers some short-term budget flexibility, the jump in defence spending from 2% now to 5% of GDP in 2030 agreed at last week’s NATO meeting will strain public finances for years to come. Without major productivity gains across the EU, this massive spending increase will likely drive up both inflation and interest rates.

And with this, we arrive at the second pillar of the presidency’s priorities: the EU’s economic competitiveness, which has long been under pressure. Growth has, to put it mildly, been subdued since the pandemic, and the Draghi report, published last year, points to major structural weaknesses – particularly regarding productivity and investments. According to the report, the EU needs annual investments of EUR 750-800 billion – approximately double Denmark’s GDP – to compete with the US and China while also meeting the climate goals.

That’s why it’s encouraging that there finally seems to be genuine political will to take the report’s recommendations seriously. During its EU presidency, Denmark will focus on advancing key initiatives like the Capital Markets Union and establishing a Savings and Investment Union to help direct substantial European savings into productive investments. Additionally, Denmark will prioritise deregulation, simplifying EU legislation and strengthening the internal market as essential components in revitalising Europe’s economic growth.

A third central theme will be the EU’s trade policy. Both the US and China are challenging international rules, but Denmark will push for the EU to remain a defender of free, rules-based global trade. However, this commitment could face an early challenge on 9 July if (provisional) US-EU trade negotiations fall short of President Trump’s expectations. Among other issues, digital service taxes, which several EU countries, including Denmark, have implemented, could significantly impact relations between the EU and US.

In short, Denmark faces an exciting presidency ahead, culminating in the Copenhagen EU summit in early October. But it won’t just be a Copenhagen event. The opening ceremony is held tomorrow 3rd July in Aarhus with the Danish government, the royal family and the full EU Commission in attendance, while informal ministerial meetings are spread across Denmark – from Aalborg and Herning to Horsens and Frederiksberg.

And thus, beyond making a clear Danish imprint on the EU’s future, the presidency may also offer a chance to showcase all of Denmark to the global media.

Have a great summer – and good luck to the Danish presidency.


Read article disclaimer

Chief Economist's Corner

A personal view on economic and political topics.
Ad hoc