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Trumponomics will probably not lead to much lower growth in Norway or more rate cuts from Norges Bank. To the contrary, we have been strengthened in our view that the number of rate cuts at home will be few.

There is no doubt that housing investment has fallen significantly in recent years, but we are sceptical to the official figures towards the end of last year.

Growth in GDP Mainland came in at -0.4% q/q in Q4, clearly lower than expected. Some take it as an indication that the economy needs a lot of stimulus. We do not agree, the economy is not as weak as the numbers indicate and growth will pick up.

Dagens forslag til statsbudsjett fra Regjeringen anslås å gi et nøytralt bidrag både til norsk økonomi og til rentebanen til Norges Bank. Kronesalgene anslås å bli lavere neste år.

Norwegian Core inflation jumped to 6.3% y/y compared to Norges Bank's expectations at 6.1%. Hence, inflation is another factor that points to a higher rate top and is in support of our view of Norges Bank raising rates to 4% by September.

Core inflation came in at 6.2% y/y in March, in line with Norges Bank. Given the continued high inflation and weak NOK, it is highly likely that Norges Bank will stick to their planned rate hike to 3.25% on 4th May.

Core inflation came in at 5.9% y/y in February, in line with Norges Bank. This reduces some of the pressure on the central bank, but Norges Bank is far from done with rate hikes.

Core inflation came in at 5.7% y/y in November, down from 5.9% last month. Headline fell to 6.5% y/y from 7.5%. Norges Bank will take comfort in the lower inflation prints and hike the key rate by 25bp next week.