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The ECB cut rates to 2%, but suggested that barring downside surprises, it may already be done cutting. We hold onto to our forecast that no further cuts will be seen, though risks remain tilted to the downside.

Euro-area core inflation returned to its downward trend in May. This implies that the ECB’s focus will be on the growth outlook in the coming months.

The ECB is set to cut rates again next week, but we expect the central bank to take a more wait-and-see approach towards the future, and ultimately decide against cutting rates further. New staff forecasts will shed more light on the risk picture.

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While financial markets have seen clear relief on the back of trade deals and lower tariffs, the considerable policy uncertainty is set to be an increasing burden for the dollar going forward. We revise our EUR/USD path further upwards.

The Fed leaves rates unchanged and are not in a hurry to move. With higher uncertainty at both sides of their mandate, they are waiting for more clarity.

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The high level of uncertainty around the global and Euro-area growth outlook implies that the ECB may not pay much attention to the higher than expected April inflation numbers at its June meeting.

China started the year 2025 with robust GDP growth. Slightly better sentiment was also apparent during my trip to China. However, the intensified trade war between the US and China is going to hurt the growth and CNY outlook in the coming months.

The ECB cut rates by 25bp and increased its focus on downside growth risks and tighter financing conditions, which suggests another cut is likely in June. We think the ECB will stop at 2%, but risks remain tilted to the downside.

The ECB will most likely continue rate cuts with another 25bp step next week. Amidst exceptional uncertainty, signals regarding the future will be vague, while the statement is set to move further towards a neutral policy stance.

Trump’s tariffs have boosted uncertainty to a totally new level, which has led to huge swings in financial markets. We note the elevated risks in all forecasts at the moment, but still expect no cuts from the Fed and two further cuts from the ECB.

The more open-minded ECB remains tilted towards further easing, and given this week’s trade news, another cut in April looks almost a done deal. The path after that remains more open with considerable uncertainties both ways.

Inflation slowed to 2.2% y/y in March, according to the flash estimate. Moreover, core inflation slowed due to a slowdown in core services. With inflation converging on target, the ECB is likely to opt for neutral policy rates.

The FOMC still signals that they are in no hurry to cut rates and made few changed to the dot plot. Increased risk of slower growth is matched by upside risks of inflation. The QT pace was reduced.